Commerce and retail media in festive 2026, the largest single pool inside digital Rs115 Bn; Festive Takes 2 Rupees in Every 5 the Market Adds
FinTech BizNews Service
Mumbai, 12 November, 2026: Festive’s share of the Indian ad year was 30.5 per cent in 2022 and has risen every year since, to 34 to 35 per cent in 2026. Festive spend has grown about 17 per cent a year against about 13.5 for the whole market. Festive is a third of the market but takes 40 to 42 per cent of its growth, as per a study by Datum Intelligence.
Commerce and retail media in festive 2026, the largest single pool inside digital Rs11,500 Cr.
Two thirds of the festive rupee is digital. Commerce and retail media runs across search, social, video and display, so it never shows up as a line of its own. A plan built format by format misses it and underbuys it.
Quick commerce is the fastest part of that pool, at about Rs2,200 crore and up 50 per cent. Festive carries up to two fifths of a quick commerce platform’s advertising year.
The 2026 season runs from Onam to Chhath Puja, 26 August to 15 November. Diwali falls on 8 November, nineteen days later than in 2025.
The platforms that record the sale are taking share
Google and Meta still lead India’s digital ad spend, and their revenue still grows every year. Their share is what is slipping.
61.5% is Google and Meta’s share of the Rs1,04,214 crore digital pool in FY25. Their combined India ad revenue went from Rs23,213 crore in FY21 to Rs64,134 crore.
+4.0pts are commerce platforms’ gain in share of digital ad spend between FY24 and FY26. Every other group loses some.
+2.9pts are quick commerce’s gain in share of the commerce-ads pool in 2026, the only platform group gaining. Amazon and Flipkart Group each give up more than a point.
(Sources: RoC filings; Google, Meta, Amazon, Flipkart, Myntra and Zepto filings; Datum India Advertising Forecast 2025-2030. FY26 figures are Datum estimates.)
Where the Festive Rupee Is Going
Four findings from the report. The platform split, the shopper and buyer surveys and the full forecast sit in the PDF.
Festive spend grows 13 to 17 per cent to Rs60,000 to 62,000 crore
Festive’s share of the ad year has gone up in each of the last four years. In 2026 it takes 34 to 35 per cent of a Rs1,75,782 crore market, and 40 to 42 per cent of what that market adds.
Commerce advertising grows at twice the market
India’s commerce-ads pool grows from Rs23,740 crore in 2025 to Rs30,091 crore in 2026, up 27 per cent against 11 for the market. Amazon and Flipkart Group still take seven rupees in ten.
Half of online shoppers already research purchases with AI
In the past three months 51 per cent used an AI chatbot to research a purchase and 49 per cent a marketplace assistant such as Rufus or Flippi. OpenAI announced ChatGPT ads in India on 27 August, six weeks before the first festive sale.
Seven in ten shoppers start looking before the sales open
Thirty-six per cent of Diwali shoppers were already exploring products on 1 August, and 70 per cent by the time the sales open on 8 October. Discovery money has to be spent in August and September.
The money is following the checkout. Shopping and quick commerce apps gain because they can show the sale an ad drove.
Buyers Want Proof of Return on Every Buy, and a Price They Can See
Programmatic mobile buyers check the return on every channel, however they pay for it. After targeting, a visible price is what they weigh most when they choose a partner.
72.9 per cent of programmatic mobile buyers always or usually measure channel-level return, even on a CPM buy. Only 5.4 per cent never do.
63.9 per cent moved budget from the walled gardens to independent channels in the past year, and 1.2 per cent moved it back. 73.5 per cent expect to give independents more over the next three years.
90.4 per cent call supply-path transparency essential or somewhat important, even though it ranks fourth among the factors they weigh.
A reach proposal should arrive with its own measure of return, and a partner should show its fees and supply path up front.
