After volatile trades range-bound Nifty closes with positive undertone
Dhupesh Dhameja,
Derivatives Research Analyst,
SAMCO Securities
Nifty index traded in a highly volatile range and managed to close marginally positive at 23,649.95, up 6.45 points (+0.03%), indicating continued indecisiveness near crucial support zones. On the daily chart, the index is gradually stabilizing near the 23,400–23,600 region and attempting to form a short-term base after the recent corrective decline. The index is still trading below its 20-DEMA placed near 23,850 and below the key 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone, suggesting that upside momentum remains capped despite the recovery attempt.
Technically, price action over the last few sessions indicates a base formation near lower levels, where repeated buying interest is emerging around the 23,300–23,400 zone. The formation of smaller candle bodies and reduced downside follow-through reflects absorption of selling pressure rather than aggressive unwinding. However, the inability to reclaim higher resistance zones suggests that traders remain cautious and are waiting for a decisive breakout confirmation before fresh directional positioning.
Momentum indicator RSI on the daily timeframe is hovering near 45 and has started witnessing a gradual recovery from lower levels, indicating weakening bearish momentum and early signs of stabilization. Meanwhile, India VIX rose sharply to 19.46, reflecting elevated volatility and continuation of sharp two-sided intraday swings despite the ongoing base-building process.
From a derivatives perspective, PCR stands near 1.35, indicating strong put writing activity and improving support formation at lower levels. Option data shows aggressive Put writing near 23,500–23,300 strikes, establishing a solid support base, while call writers remain active near 23,800–24,000 levels, restricting immediate upside momentum.
The overall setup suggests the market is entering a consolidation phase with stock-specific action dominating the broader trend. As long as the index sustains above 23,400, the buy-on-dips strategy may remain favorable for a gradual recovery towards 23,800–24,000 levels. However, a decisive breakdown below 23,300 could invalidate the ongoing base formation theory and trigger fresh weakness towards 23,100–23,000 levels.
Nifty Bank: technical structure hints at continued consolidation with weak bias
Nifty Bank index remained under pressure and closed lower by 0.32% at 53,537, reflecting persistent weakness in the banking space amid absence of strong institutional buying support. On the daily chart, the index continues to trade below its 10-DEMA placed near 54,280 and is struggling to sustain above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement zone, indicating that the short-term structure remains biased toward consolidation with negative undertone.
Technically, the index has been forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, which reflects sustained supply pressure on every pullback recovery and highlights lack of momentum continuation from the bulls. The recent rebound attempts are witnessing selling near resistance zones, suggesting traders are using higher levels to reduce long exposure rather than initiating fresh aggressive buying positions.
Momentum indicator RSI slipped near 41, reflecting weakening momentum and limited participation from the buying side, while remaining below the neutral 50 mark further confirms subdued strength in the ongoing recovery attempt.
From a derivatives perspective, aggressive call writing near 54,000–55,000 continues to cap upside momentum, while meaningful put writing near 53,000 is providing immediate support cushion on declines. PCR stands near 0.79, indicating cautious positioning with traders maintaining a defensive stance amid elevated volatility in the banking segment.
The overall setup suggests that the index is currently witnessing a weak consolidation phase after breakdown pressure, where volatility-driven moves and stock-specific action are likely to dominate near-term trade. As long as the index remains below 54,300, a “sell on rise” strategy may continue to remain favorable for downside targets towards 53,000–52,800, while only a decisive reclaim above 54,500 could trigger fresh short-covering momentum towards 55,000–55,300 levels.
Technical Analysis Report
Nifty Recovers from Intraday Lows, Nifty Bank Flashes Reversal Signal
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities
Nifty closed virtually flat at 23,649.95, up just 0.03%, but the intraday session had a different story to tell. The index opened at 23,482 and slipped sharply to an intraday low of 23,317.10 before a strong recovery drove prices back to close near the day’s high of 23,695.65. The daily chart formed a candle with both lower and upper wicks.
The recovery from the 50% Fibonacci zone is noteworthy, as this level has now been tested and defended across multiple sessions. The close near 23,650 places the index around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
On the hourly chart, the session produced a V-shaped intraday recovery, with the index reclaiming the entire decline within the same session. However, the advance-decline ratio remained skewed to the negative side.
Among the Technical indicators, the RSI is placed at 45, while the ADX is positioned near 21, with the directional indicators reflecting a lack of strong trending momentum.
On the downside, the 23,400–23,260 zone remains the immediate cushion. On the upside, the 23,850–24,000 zone, aligned with the moving average cluster, becomes the key resistance band.
Nifty Bank opened with a gap-down, touched an intraday low of 52,783.45, and then witnessed a sharp recovery to close at 53,537.00, down 0.32%. The index has formed a hammer candle on the daily chart.
On the hourly chart, the session produced a V-shaped recovery from the intraday lows but remains below the hourly Supertrend.
The daily RSI is placed near the 40 zone.
The divergence within the banking space widened further, with Nifty PSU Bank declining 1.92% to settle at 7,873.00, while Nifty Private Bank gained 0.23% to close at 26,159.95.
USD/INR stood at 96.39, marking a fresh all-time low for the rupee and continuing to weigh on broader sentiment.
On the downside, the 53,000–52,800 zone remains the key support area. On the upside, the 54,000–54,200 zone becomes the immediate resistance band.
