Lower VIX and Strong OI (Open Interest) Support Bullish Bias
Dhupesh Dhameja,
Derivatives Research Analyst,
SAMCO Securities
The Nifty index witnessed a strong recovery-led rally and closed at 24,330.95 (+1.24%), marking a decisive breakout from its prolonged consolidation phase.
Derivatives Analysis Report
Nifty Breaks Consolidation Range
On the daily chart, the index has convincingly surpassed the 0.50 Fibonacci resistance zone (24,250) and reclaimed the 50-DEMA, indicating a significant improvement in short-term trend, strength and market sentiment.
Technically, the breakout above the recent trading range suggests renewed buying interest, with the index now forming a positive higher-low structure after consistently finding support near the 0.382 Fibonacci zone (23,750–23,800). The breakout candle supported by broader participation reflects strengthening bullish momentum and signals potential continuation of the recovery trend. RSI has moved above 55, indicating improving momentum and strengthening price participation, while the decline in India VIX towards 16.6 reflects easing volatility and improving trader confidence.
From a derivatives perspective, PCR stands near 1.18, signaling improving market sentiment. Option data indicates aggressive Put writing around 24,200–24,000, establishing a strong support base, while call writing near 24,500–24,800 may act as the next immediate resistance zone.
Overall, the breakout above 24,250 and reclaiming of the 50-DEMA has shifted the near-term structure in favor of bulls. As long as the index sustains above the breakout zone of 24,200–24,250, buy-on-dips strategy remains favorable, while a sustained move above 24,500 could trigger further upside momentum towards higher levels.
Nifty Bank Engulfs Prior Three Sessions
Nifty Bank index witnessed a sharp recovery-led rally and closed at 55,981.05 (+2.63%), forming a strong bullish candle that completely engulfed the previous three trading sessions, indicating aggressive short covering and renewed buying momentum. On the daily chart, the index witnessed a strong rebound from the 0.382 Fibonacci support zone (54,400), establishing it as an immediate base for the current recovery. The index has now decisively closed above the 0.50 Fibonacci resistance zone (55,800) and reclaimed its 20-DEMA, signaling a significant improvement in near-term price structure.
Technically, the formation suggests buyers are regaining control after prolonged weakness, while the sharp recovery reflects strong participation from lower levels. The index is now approaching a crucial hurdle near 56,100, and a sustained move above this level would confirm continuation of bullish momentum towards higher resistance zones.
RSI has bounced back above 52, indicating improving momentum and strengthening market participation. From a derivatives perspective, PCR stands near 0.92, reflecting improving sentiment after recent weakness. Option data shows aggressive put writing near 55,500–55,000, establishing a strong support base, while call writing around 56,000–56,500 may act as the immediate resistance zone.
Overall, the index has witnessed a strong technical rebound from key support levels, improving the short-term outlook. As long as Nifty Bank sustains above 55,500–55,400, buy-on-dips strategy remains favorable, while a decisive move above 56,100 could trigger further upside momentum in the coming sessions.
Technical Analysis Report
Nifty Reclaims Key Moving Averages as India VIX drops Further
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities
Nifty ended the session at 24,330.95, gaining 1.24%, after opening at 24,171.00. The index dipped briefly to an intraday low of 23,997.90 and then rallied steadily to close near the day’s high.
The daily chart formed a bullish candle, indicating buying interest around the 24,000 zone, which sustained through the session. The index has now reclaimed and is holding above the 9-day, 20-day, and 50-day simple moving averages.
On the hourly chart, the index is forming a sequence of higher lows, with the recent base near the 23,860–23,900 zone holding firm.
The RSI is placed near 55 and is trending higher, reflecting improving momentum, while the MACD remains in positive territory.
India VIX declined sharply by 6.87% to settle at 16.67, marking its lowest reading since early March.
On the upside, the 24,450–24,550 zone remains the immediate resistance band. A sustained close above this range could open the path toward the 24,750 zone, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
On the downside, the 24,050–23,900 zone remains the immediate cushion. A buy-on-dips approach may remain preferable as long as the index sustains above 24,200 on a closing basis.
Nifty Bank ended the session at 55,981.05, gaining 2.63%, as the index witnessed a sharp recovery after a phase of consolidation.
Nifty Bank formed a strong bullish candle on the daily chart.
The index has now moved right up to the SMA placed near 56,100, which remains a key near-term hurdle.
A sustained close above this level would mark a significant improvement in the short-term setup.
On the hourly chart, Nifty Bank is bouncing from the 54,400–54,500 zone and advancing steadily on the higher side.
The RSI is placed near 52, while the MACD remains in negative territory; however, the histogram has turned positive.
Nifty Private Bank gained 2.42% to settle at 26,700.75, while Nifty PSU Bank advanced 2.84% to close at 8,679.15, indicating broad-based strength across the banking space.
On the upside, the 56,100–56,500 zone remains the immediate resistance band. On the downside, the 55,500–55,300 zone remains the immediate support band; holding above this range will be important to sustain the current recovery momentum.
