Dhupesh Dhameja, 

Derivatives Research Analyst, 

SAMCO Securities

Nifty index witnessed a volatile session, closing at 24,177.65 (+0.76%), but failed to sustain higher levels, indicating supply pressure near resistance. 

Derivatives Analysis Report

Nifty May stay Range-bound with slight cautious bias

Technically, the index has faced rejection from the 0.50 Fibonacci zone (24,200–24,250), aligned with the 50-DEMA, and has closed below it, signalling that this zone continues to act as a strong resistance barrier and reflecting a lack of follow-through buying. This rejection suggests that the recent recovery lacks strength and the index may remain range-bound to slightly cautious in the near term.

On the downside, 24,000–23,950 acts as immediate support, followed by 23,750–23,700 (0.382 Fibonacci) as a stronger base. A break below these levels could trigger renewed selling pressure. On the upside, 24,200–24,300 remains a crucial resistance zone, and only a decisive breakout above this range can revive bullish momentum.

From a derivatives perspective, PCR stands near 0.93, indicating a neutral undertone. Option data shows call writing concentrated around 24,300–24,500, capping the upside, while put writing near 24,000–23,800 is providing immediate support, reinforcing a defined trading range.

Momentum indicators remain subdued, with RSI hovering near the mid-zone (50–52), reflecting lack of strong directional strength. Overall, the index is struggling near key resistance levels, and until it sustains above them, a range-bound to sell-on-rise strategy remains favourable, with resistance levels likely to cap upside in the near term.

Nifty Bank: supply seen on rallies

Nifty Bank index witnessed a volatile session with a negative undertone, facing strong rejection at higher levels and closing at 55,403.60 (+0.01%), indicating lack of follow-through buying after the recent pullback. On the daily chart, the index continues to sustain below the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement zone (~55,800), confirming a breakdown from the prior consolidation range and signalling persistent supply on rallies.

Structurally, the index is forming lower highs, reflecting weakening price action, while it remains below key short-term moving averages, adding to the cautious bias. The RSI is hovering near 48, indicating fading momentum and absence of strong directional strength.

From a derivatives perspective, PCR stands near 0.91, suggesting a slightly cautious undertone. Option data shows call writing clustered around 55,500–56,000, capping the upside, while put writing near 54,500–55,000 is providing immediate support, reinforcing a defined trading band.

Overall, the index remains range-bound with a negative bias, and until it sustains above 56,000, sell-on-rise remains the preferred strategy. A decisive move below 55,000 could accelerate downside towards 54,400–54,200, while only a sustained breakout above 56,000 would revive bullish momentum.

Technical Analysis Report

Nifty Gains Ground but Loses Grip, Retracement Hurdle Keeps Bulls in Check

Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities

Nifty ended the session at 24,177.65, gaining 0.76%. The daily chart formed a candle with a long upper wick, indicating selling pressure near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and suggesting that the upside remains contested despite the positive close. The index is now hovering around the SMA.

The RSI is placed near 53, holding marginally above the neutral zone and reflecting steady but not accelerating momentum. The MACD remains in positive territory with the histogram holding above the zero line, indicating the pace of the recent up move has moderated. India VIX settled at 17.44, remaining in a relatively contained zone, while USD-INR continues to hover near 94.84, adding to the cautious undertone on the external front.

On the upside, the 24,270–24,350 zone remains the immediate resistance band, aligned with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A sustained close above this zone would be required to open the path toward the 24,750 area. On the downside, 24,050–23,900 remains the immediate support zone.

The session continued to reflect a tug-of-war near the 24,000 zone which was witnessed over the last few trading sessions. Until Nifty delivers a decisive close above 24,350, the index is likely to remain in a consolidation phase, with upside attempts likely to face resistance.

Nifty Bank ended the session at 55,403.60, virtually unchanged at +0.01%, before retreating sharply to close near the day’s low. The daily chart formed a bearish candle with a prominent upper wick, indicating clear rejection near the 50-day SMA, placed at 56,400.

Nifty Bank is hovering near the middle Bollinger Band, placed around 55,000, while the band width remains wide. The index is oscillating around its mean rather than trending in either direction.

The RSI is placed near 48, slipping below the neutral zone. The MACD remains in positive territory; however, the histogram has begun to contract.

Nifty Private Bank gained 0.44%, while Nifty PSU Bank declined 0.41%, indicating divergence within the banking space.

On the upside, the 56,000–56,500 zone remains the resistance band. On the downside, 55,000–54,600 remains the immediate support zone; holding above this range will be important to maintain the current recovery setup.