Silver slipped below $83/oz, as markets await key US data later this week.
Kaynat Chainwala,
AVP Commodity Research,
Kotak Securities
Mumbai, 12 February 2026: Gold and silver momentum stalled after a stronger-than-expected January US jobs report. Payrolls rose by 130,000 jobs, the largest increase in over a year, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, signaling stabilization after a weak 2025. The report also included major downward revisions to 2025 data, with average monthly job growth revised to 15,000 jobs from 49,000 previously.
The strong labor print pushed traders to delay expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets now pricing a potential first cut in July instead of June. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of no rate cut in June rose to 40%, while the odds of a June rate cut remain near 50%. The stronger employment data reinforced Fed officials’ inclination to keep interest rates on hold for now, lifting US Treasury yields and the dollar and weighing on bullion prices. Spot gold eased from an intraday high of $5,119/oz to settle below $5,085/oz, while silver pulled back to close the session below $84/oz from a session high of $86.3/oz. The earlier rally in silver was supported by the Silver Institute’s forecast that the market is expected to remain in deficit in 2026 for a sixth consecutive year, supported by strong investment demand.
Today, gold has retreated toward $5,050/oz and silver slipped below $83/oz, as markets await key US data later this week. Investors will be closely watching US jobless claims and Friday’s CPI release, smaller-than-expected figures could revive rate-cut expectations, while persistent inflation and a resilient labor market could keep the Fed on a “higher-for-longer” trajectory.
WTI crude oil edged higher to $65.8/bbl yesterday as markets monitored the US-Iran situation, with military options still on the table keeping geopolitical risk elevated in a key oil-producing region. However, prices retreated to settle at $64.6/bbl after the EIA reported an 8.5 million barrel increase in US crude inventories to 428.8 million barrels, the highest level since June. Today, oil prices rebounded toward $65/bbl as President Trump said no “definitive” agreement was reached with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Iran, but negotiations with Tehran will continue, keeping markets cautious as they assess the prospects of a nuclear deal. Besides, International Energy Agency’s monthly outlook will also be closely watched for fresh cues on market balance.
