The rupee has slipped to a fresh all-time low, crossing the 91 mark
Anindya Banerjee,
Head, Currency and Commodity Research,
Kotak Securities
Mumbai, 16 December 2025: The rupee has slipped to a fresh all-time low, crossing the 91 mark, making it one of the weakest major currencies globally this year and the weakest in Asia in 2025 so far. The pressure on the currency is being driven by three key factors: sentiment, capital flows, and the global macro backdrop.
On sentiment, uncertainty around the pending India–US trade deal and the broader trade-war environment is weighing on markets. From a flows perspective, foreign portfolio investors have pulled out close to USD 2.7 billion in the first two weeks of December alone, already among the largest monthly outflows this year, with the month still unfinished.
Globally, rising US bond yields and expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike have triggered an unwinding of the yen carry trade. This has led to risk aversion across equities, credit, crypto, and some commodities, adding speculative pressure on emerging-market currencies, including the rupee.
In the near term, the 90 level remains a key support, while 91.25 is an important resistance. A sustained break higher could open the door towards 92. The RBI’s relatively limited intervention so far appears deliberate. With India’s growth strong and inflation contained, policymakers may be comfortable allowing some currency depreciation, especially in a global trade-war environment where a weaker currency can support export competitiveness.
